The following is a comment posted by FISCO guest analyst Tetsuyuki Oishi (also CEO of Bitcoin Lab (Twitter: @bigstonebtc). At FISCO, we connect with individuals who actively convey cryptocurrency information, and we are working toward dispensing more diverse information to all investors.
*Posted on February 3, 2020
Other Cryptocurrencies Beside Bitcoin That Are On Steady Footing
Bitcoin rose to USD$7,000 at the beginning of this year and now it is trending at close to USD$9,200 – 9,400. I am told that people are becoming aware of the future halving of Bitcoin, and the topic of focus is to what extent the price will increase before a halving is expected to occur, around the beginning of May.
For this, we can refer to halving markets in the past. The last time this occurred for Bitcoin in 2016, its price rose in late May, approximately a month and a half before a halving. It increased from USD$400 to close to USD$800, then had a reactionary fall. By the time the halving occurred on July 9, it was worth close to USD$630.
Lightcoin’s price drastically rose one month before it began moving toward a halving last year, but ended up being low-key on the actual day of halving.
When we consider past examples like these, markets that are conscious of the actual halving of Bitcoin are expected to enter a similar phase around mid-March to April.
Despite the impression of steady footing, Bitcoin’s gradual price rise has slowed, and it did not successfully push through to USD$10,000 since last year, and we cannot deny the possibility that the price may readjust. However, a price rise can happen with a small trigger, and picking it up on a price dip would be more reliable than jumping in on short selling.
Speculative buying has been occurring for other cryptocurrency brands that are expected to have a halving this year. The price of Bitcoin Cash (BCH) temporarily doubled from USD$200 to USD$400. Bitcoin Cash is nearing its own halving at the beginning of April, ahead of Bitcoin.
Ethereum Classic (ETC) is also showing a significant rise in price, from USD$4.5 to USD$12. Although this is not due to halving; this is because the amount of supply is expected to decrease by 20% two months later. When a brand like this pulls the market, it will continue to have steady footing.
For the time being, it is expected that many people will continue to pursue brand cryptocurrency ahead of Bitcoin in anticipation of a halving, but the strategy of many investors would likely be to switch to Bitcoin from there. When many people are considering the same strategy, it would be unthinkable to fall behind. I recommend not to chase the halving of altcoins too seriously.
Author: Tetsuyuki “Bigstone” Oishi
Blog: Bitcoin Lab