• Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to rise more than 30% in the eight weeks leading up to the halving, according to 10X Research. The fourth halving is scheduled for April 19th.
• Bitcoin’s daily RSI (relative strength index) is above 80, which historically indicates a 60-day increase rate of more than 50%.

Bitcoin has continued to rise in recent months. Bulls ignored a resurgence in the US dollar and Treasury yields, pushing Bitcoin to its highest level since late 2021.

Although a price correction phase is likely, the broad uptrend will continue and the fourth mining reward halving is expected to occur on April 19th, before reaching an all-time high of around $69,000. may exceed.

That’s the message from 10X Research, which studied historical data and a technical analysis indicator called RSI (relative strength index). Let’s take a closer look at these two factors.

Bull market before halving

It is already well known that Bitcoin bottoms out 12 to 16 months before the halving and begins an upward trend before and a year after the halving. More importantly for traders, the last three halving cycles have seen prices rise more than 30% in the eight weeks leading up to the quadrennial halving. During the halving scheduled for April 19th, the block reward will be halved from 6.5 BTC to 3.25 BTC.

“Bitcoin rises an average of 32% in the 60 days leading up to the halving,” said Markus Thielen, founder of 10X Research. At the time of writing this article, Bitcoin is around $52,000. A 32% rally could send the price to an all-time high of around $69,000 by the time of the halving.

“The closer we get to the halving, the higher the probability that Bitcoin will rise.In the crypto asset community, there is a strong perception that halvings are bullish, and this time too will likely be the same. “It’s definitely trickling into the TradeFi (traditional finance) community who are actively buying Bitcoin ETFs,” he continued.

Strong inflows into US-approved Bitcoin ETFs indicate a bullish mood among traditional investors. Bitcoin ETFs allow investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without the hassle of storing it.

Monthly RSI indicates an increase

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is an indicator that shows the speed and change of price movements over a period of time, usually a week, 14 days, or a month. A value above 70 indicates strong upward momentum in prices.

A week ago, Bitcoin’s 14-day RSI rose above 80 for the first time since December. According to 10X Research, 12 of the past 14 such moves have shown an acceleration of the uptrend, resulting in an average gain of 54% over the following 60 days.

“For reference, the last time we saw similar numbers, Bitcoin was trading at $48,294, and if history is any guide, Bitcoin will rise to $74,600. “It’s possible,” Thielen said.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and macroeconomic factors may drive trends.

That said, the current macroeconomic environment appears to be encouraging risk-taking, with the US implementing the most stimulative fiscal policy in years. Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end forecast for the S&P 500 by 4% to 5,200, citing strong global economic growth and expectations for a weaker dollar.

｜Translation/Editing: CoinDesk JAPAN Editorial Department
｜Image: Shutterstock
｜Original text: 2 Reasons Bitcoin Could Challenge Record High of $69K Before Halving