Probability Skyrockets To 75% For Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval, Says Bloomberg Analyst


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According to a recent post on X, senior Bloomberg analysts have predicted that the odds for the approval of a Spot Bitcoin ETF have soared to an impressive 75%. Following Grayscale’s victory against the SEC, the US market might soon get the first Bitcoin ETF.

SEC’s Dominance Declines Following Lose

According to two senior Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, the probability for the approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs within this calendar year has been revised upward to 75%, with an impressive 95% likelihood projected by the end of 2024.

While the previous estimate of 65% had already accounted for Grayscale’s favorable outcome, the unanimous and decisive nature of the recent ruling has exceeded expectations. This leaves the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) with minimal discretionary leeway for future decisions on the matter.

Following Grayscale’s recent legal victory over the SEC, wherein the court mandated the regulatory body to reconsider its rejection of a Spot Bitcoin ETF application, the likelihood of such an ETF being approved this year has surged by an additional 10%. The momentum for approval appears to be accelerating daily.

In the final analysis, experts indicate that the SEC’s recent legal setback signals increasing challenges for the regulatory agency. They specifically point out that the SEC will find it increasingly difficult to rationalize additional rejections, given the pressure from strategic deals, adverse public relations, and Hashdex’s innovative strategy. As a result, the prospects for the inaugural Spot Bitcoin ETF receiving approval for U.S. operations this year are becoming increasingly likely.

While the United States has not yet greenlit the establishment of a Spot Bitcoin ETF, the tide appears to be turning.

Eric said, “Getting asked about deadlines coming this Friday. We will not be surprised if the SEC delays given the ruling JUST happened. That said, not sure timelines will matter as much in this situation, prob more likely we wake up one day and hear SEC has given in and launch imminent.”

Next Week Is Crucial For The Crypto Market

The U.S. SEC is approaching its initial deadlines to render decisions on a total of seven Spot Bitcoin ETF applications. This comes in the wake of its legal setback against Grayscale Investments in a U.S. federal appeals court.

According to multiple SEC filings, investment firm Bitwise is slated to receive a decision regarding its ETF application on September 1. Other major firms such as BlackRock, VanEck, Fidelity, Invesco, and WisdomTree are all anticipating the SEC’s rulings on their respective funds by September 2.

Concurrently, Valkyrie is scheduled to receive the SEC’s decision on its application on September 4.

According to Eric Balchunas, the approval of a Bitcoin Spot ETF by the SEC could potentially unleash a staggering $30 trillion in capital into the Bitcoin market.