As of Q3, the value of digital assets is in the midst of a severe bear market, and bitcoin has had a sharp decline since reaching an all-time high in November 2021. The battered Bitcoin may soon, however, find some respite and rise to $63,000 by March 2024. Here’s why.
By March 2024, when the cryptocurrency is most likely to experience mining reward halving, a programme designed to slow supply growth by 50% every four years, Bitcoin may finally experience the much needed rally.
Markus Thielen, head of research and strategy at crypto services provider Matrixport, which has $10 billion in assets under management, made that most recent prediction.
The positive forecast is predicated on the idea that bitcoin’s price would continue to rise, as it did in the months before the July 2016 and April 2020 halvings.
On both times, bitcoin experienced positive winds 15 months before the halves and traded 39% higher than it did two years prior to the halving.
“Prices started to rally 15 months before the next halving (November 2022) and they tend to finish 39% from where they traded 24 months prior. This would imply that bitcoin trades around $63,160 (March 2022 at $45,538*(1+39%) = $63,160) by March 2024.”
Three reward halvings have taken place for bitcoin thus far. Following the third halving on May 12, 2020, prices surged from $8,800 to $69,000 in just 18 months. The initial plan was for the fourth halving to occur in May 2024.
The reward halving is now anticipated to occur in March 2024, however, as a result of the bear market’s dramatic increase in the hash rate, or processing power, committed to mining blocks.