On August 14, Bitcoin (BTC) surged beyond $25,000 for the first time in months, but traders were reluctant to bet on a bull run. The pair could fall apart over the weekend and wind up owing $23,700. Over the weekend, bulls must keep the pair above $24,000.
Raoul Pal, a macroeconomic expert, asserts that he is extremely confident that the crypto markets have reached their bottom. The former Goldman Sachs executive claims in a new interview with asset management company Arca that the macroeconomic climate that has kept the crypto market gloomy for the most of the year is starting to change.
The macro is rolling over for him. By that, he means that a recession is approaching. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) survey and other items ought to start disintegrating quite soon and we notice it everywhere.
Therefore, that is growth vanishing. Additionally, the narrative hasn’t kept up, and most commodities have decreased by 30% to 50%.
Everyone is betting on the rise of oil reaching $200. I believe a washout is imminent, and it drops to $60. The final inflation tale is therefore that.
Will inflation come down?
Pal predicts that changes to the macroeconomic environment would first affect enterprises, then the labor market.
After Covid, he claimed, People accumulated enormous inventories. Due to the economy’s slowdown and the impact of inflation on disposable income, those inventories are currently unsold.
So, Walmart and Amazon have demonstrated it for us. In an effort to sell it, they will start offering discounts on inventories. People are dismissing workers. Thus, the macrocycle will reach its nasty stage.
Pal emphasizes that while there is negative news for the economy, there is positive news for the financial markets.
“Why is that making Raoul bullish? Because the outcome to that is as inflation comes down and bond yields fall, liquidity conditions improve. And what drives financial markets at the macro level the most is liquidity conditions.”