Bitcoin and the entire crypto domain continue to witness wild price swings, making the asset class vulnerable to new investors and the more prominent players in the bull market.
The famous cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen says that there is probably one macroeconomic indicator that might be the possible reason for a trend reversal in Bitcoin (BTC).
Cowen addressed his 754,000 YouTube subscribers in a new strategy session and informed them that he is keeping a watch on the US inflation rate and its relationship to the equities markets and Bitcoin.
According to his tweet on June 15, he has firmly said that inflation is still rising, and anything like high-interest rates probably won’t be an answer for controlling the unpredictability in the crypto space.
However, he expressed some skepticism over the current BTC trend. He claimed that when Bitcoin underwent the quiet surges of recovery that washed up the cryptocurrency market, other altcoins began to rebound bullishly.
S&P is Not Nearing the Bottom soon
According to Cowen, traditionally, the S&P 500 index doesn’t bottom out until inflation reaches a peak and then turns around. Since Bitcoin frequently exhibits similar behavior to the index, “BTC may not decline until inflation slows down”, he said.
“This is the S&P 500 overlaid with inflation and is one of the things that we know that’s going on right now that’s making the macro appear quite dismal at the moment. So one thing that will be obvious is the correlation between the top of inflation and the bottom of the S&P.”
In other words, the well-known crypto analyst claims that as long as inflation continues to rise, there is a good chance that Bitcoin and the stock market will continue to decline.
He further elaborated his take on S&P, where he analyzed the past action of S&P in the year the 1970s when it bottomed just at the same time that inflation hit its first peak, and again, even from this local top, it represented nearly a 50% decline. As a result, the S&P continues to decline when we look at the market today.
Before you could genuinely see a more convincing peak, Cowen believes inflation will likely continue to rise for some time. So one shouldn’t yet presume that the S&P 500 has reached its bottom until that moment comes.
BTC is Trending like a Risk Asset
One should also consider that the macro bottom is not in because Bitcoin behaves like a risk asset, just like the S&P 500.
The expert concludes by stating that as BTC is presently in a bear market, it is difficult to predict precisely how and when the largest cryptocurrency by market size will rally once more. As a result, BTC might see multiple trend reversal attempts in the coming months.