According to a research report released by JPMorgan on November 23, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved the conversion of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) to an exchange-traded fund (ETF). In anticipation of this, a significant number were purchased on the market at a significant discount to the standard value (NAV).

The bank said that since the beginning of the year, $2.5 billion (approximately 375 billion yen, at an exchange rate of 1 dollar = 150 yen) has flowed into GBTC, and if short selling cover is added, that will increase to $2.7 billion (approximately 405 billion yen). I am estimating.

Analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said, “Assuming that this buying flow is speculative in anticipation of GBTC being converted into an ETF, then after GBTC is converted, these This $2.7 billion is likely to flow out of GBTC as investors benefit.”

“If this $2.7 billion were to completely leave Bitcoin (BTC), there would of course be significant downward pressure on the Bitcoin price,” the report said. “If instead, most of this $2.7 billion shifts to other Bitcoin products, such as a new Bitcoin spot ETF that will be created following SEC approval, that is our best guess. , the negative market impact will be more modest.”

However, “we believe that the balance of risk in the Bitcoin price is skewed to the downside, as some of this $2.7 billion is likely to exit Bitcoin altogether,” the bank said.

The report adds that much more than $2.7 billion could flow out of GBTC if GBTC’s fees are not aggressively lowered after its conversion to an ETF.

｜Translation: CoinDesk JAPAN
｜Edited by: Toshihiko Inoue
｜Image: Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenschein (CoinDesk)
｜Original text: Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Could See $2.7B of Outflows if ETF Conversion Is Approved: JPMorgan