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In spite of the tremendous market volatility, Bitcoin has managed to bounce back and break out of its current channel and is anticipated to surge in the months to come.

BTC prices have recently been fluctuating above the USD 21,000 support. It increased by a few points above USD 21,450, but the gains were modest. The bearish activity was spotted close to the USD 21,550 and 21,650 levels. The price may begin a steady recovery wave above the next resistance, which is located close to the USD 22,000 level.

The BTC prices have been widely impacted due to troubling macroeconomic conditions such as Europe`s rising gas prices that is putting the global economy in the red for the past several days.

Another cause of worry is the DXY index, which has been rising as a result of investors moving their money into US dollar reserves due to concerns about a possible global recession. This impacted all other markets, including those for cryptocurrency assets.

The Catalyst of the Extended Bear Market

According to a widely respected and followed expert, Nicholas Merten, Bitcoin (BTC) and the cryptocurrency markets are merely at the start of an extended bear cycle.

The DataDash host, in a new strategy session, claimed that other markets are already beginning to warn of the emergence of an unfavorable macro environment, which will inevitably put pressure on digital assets.

He stated:

“Commodities are going to rise again, the dollar index is heading higher, and on top of that, the bond market is beginning to factor in further federal funds rate hikes. Because of the rate of inflation, equity markets were living in a fairy tale and are not prepared to support a bull market today.”

Analyzing Short-Term Patterns

The higher prices that were witnessed earlier this month will act as resistance, pushing BTC and ETH back down to lower levels and into a longer-lasting bear market, according to Merten, who predicts a short-term bounce for Bitcoin and perhaps Ethereum (ETH) may emerge.

He added that there could be a short-term rebound in the 4-hour period for Bitcoin and Ethereum to see if they could get back above $24,000 and start using those levels as support.

Additionally, he said that these levels are critical and that there is no guarantee that the price will return to this range again, but a potential short-term comeback is anticipated. There will be a significant downward correction for a few weeks.

Final Thoughts

Before a proper bull run begins, BTC may reach a low of $11–12k. This means that BTC currently has a 50% chance of going down, but given its prior performance, it may rise at least as high as $68k. Therefore, when equities and cryptocurrencies emerge from the bear market, there is also a chance of a 3x upside reward. In addition, there is a 2x payout if BTC simply returns to its fair value.