S&P 500 duly gave up on the weak Thursday‘s rebound, and bonds cratered as Treasuries aren‘t yielding on the Fed tightening expectations. There is almost 70% probability about 75bp hike coming next in September. The Fed would likely pause then, and I‘m looking for 25bp in November, with tightening continuing on the balance sheet shrinking front. Late in the week, Jakcson Hole would set the tone, but given the array of Fed speakers late in the prior week, we can look forward for a serious economic slowdown, which would be by definition necessary to bring down inflation fast from these lofty lev…

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