Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, gives Donald Trump a 98% chance to win the Republican Iowa Caucus on Jan. 15. What Happened: Prediction market traders on Polymarket think Trump’s win in the Republican Iowa Caucus is a shoo-in. Shares on this outcome pay a mere 2.14% return at the time of writing – implying a 98% chance for Trump to win. No surprise, considering Trump’s near 30-point lead, according to CNBC. Over $1 million in turnover suggests there is no shortage of traders wanting to pick up “easy money” — or those betting on a major upset. Why It Matters: Prediction markets ha…

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