Analysts who correctly predicted Bitcoin (BTC)’s recent decline to $38,000 are now saying that a new bullish bet on the crypto asset would cost more than $43,000. I think goal setting is appropriate.

“We should focus on going long as the reversal indicator suggests a low. From a risk management perspective, we should wait for Bitcoin to break above $43,000 before re-entering the long position.” said Markus Thiele, founder of 10x Research, in a note to clients on January 29th.

Thielen’s bullish view is based on Elliott wave theory. Elliott wave theory assumes that prices move in waves rather than simple patterns, and predicts future movements by observing repeating wave patterns.

According to this theory, trends progress in five waves, of which 1, 3, and 5 are “impulse waves” and represent the main trend. The rest are “retrace waves,” meaning temporary halts in the main trend.

According to Thielen, Bitcoin has been in a five-wave bullish pattern since the beginning of last year, with the recent pullback from around $49,000 to $38,500 constituting wave 4, or a temporary retracement. . Wave 5 has now begun, and prices could exceed $50,000.

“According to Elliott Wave Theory, the retracement to $38,522 is considered wave 4, and the predicted arrival of wave 5 is 52,671, which could be reached by the end of Q1 2024.” Thielen said.

This bullish outlook coincides with a decline in profit-taking selling pressure from investors in crypto investment product Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). This profit-taking partially contributed to Bitcoin’s correction (Wave 4) following the launch of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US on January 11th.

“The impact of the GBTC sell-off on the price of Bitcoin is decreasing, the stock is at a new all-time high, and Google is allowing ads for Bitcoin and crypto ETFs starting today. “This could be the trigger for an increase,” Thielen said.

According to data from CoinDesk, Bitcoin is trading around $42,270 at the time of writing.

｜Translation: CoinDesk JAPAN
｜Edited by: Toshihiko Inoue
｜Image: 10x Research
｜Original text: Bitcoin Longs Above $43K in Focus, Analyst Says