Bitcoin (BTC) gained a foothold above $40,000 during European trading hours on January 25th, while the dollar index traded mostly flat ahead of the release of US Q4 gross domestic product (GDP) data. ing.

BTC, the top crypto asset (virtual currency) by market capitalization, tested a dip in demand around $38,500 earlier this week. 38 minutes), it was trading at $40,100. The dollar index, which measures the value of the U.S. dollar against major fiat currencies, hovered around 103.70, down from a high of around 103.82 reached on the 22nd.

Traders are reconsidering expectations for an early rate cut from the US Federal Reserve as the inflationary crisis continues in the Red Sea. According to Federal Funds Futures, traders see a 50% chance that the Fed will cut rates in March, down from 80% a month ago.

Further adjustments may be made following the release of US GDP data at 1:30pm UTC 25th (10:30pm Japan time). According to CNBC, GDP in the world’s largest economy in the final three months of 2023 will increase by 2% on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, down from the 4.9% increase in the third quarter and the lowest since the second quarter of 2022. It is expected to be at the same level.

Pay attention to option deadlines

At 8:00 a.m. UTC 26th (5:00 p.m. Japan time), Deribit, the world’s largest crypto asset options exchange, announced that the world’s largest crypto asset option exchange, Deribit, was trading in bits worth $3.75 billion (approximately 562.5 billion yen, equivalent to 1 dollar = 150 yen). Coin options and Ethereum options worth $2.07 billion (approximately 310.5 billion yen) are expiring.

Lukk Strijers, chief operating officer at Deribit, said: “As tomorrow’s option expiration approaches, we are confident that the market will steadily recover from the shock of ETF introductions and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) unwinding. It’s clear that there is,” he said. “Notably, the call and put skews have increased from previously low levels, indicating a shift in market sentiment.”

Strigers said traders are moving their positions from the January contract to the February contract.

According to the data, the maximum pain point for Bitcoin’s January expiration option is $41,000, while that for Ethereum is $2,300. The maximum pain point is the level at which an option buyer will lose the most at expiration. In traditional markets, option sellers (usually deep-pocketed institutional investors) seek to inflict maximum damage on buyers by pushing the underlying spot market toward a maximum pain point before expiry. do.

｜Translation: CoinDesk JAPAN
｜Edited by: Toshihiko Inoue
｜Image: Shutterstock
｜Original text: Bitcoin Holds Above $40K Ahead of US GDP, $5.8B Crypto Options Expiry