Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen more than 15% since the launch of spot exchange traded funds (ETFs). Financial giant JPMorgan stated in a research report on January 18 that $1.5 billion (approximately 225 billion yen, equivalent to 1 dollar = 150 yen) was leaked from Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). ing.

Analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said, “GBTC investors who have been preparing for an eventual ETF conversion by purchasing GBTC at a deep discount to its NAV over the past year will , appears to be locking in profits by exiting Bitcoin altogether rather than shifting to other spot Bitcoin ETFs.”

Before GBTC was elevated from a trust to an ETF, it was the only way for American stock traders to gain exposure to Bitcoin price movements without actually purchasing the cryptocurrency. As a result, GBTC has become the world’s largest Bitcoin fund.

JPMorgan previously estimated that up to $3 billion (about 450 billion yen) was invested in GBTC in the secondary market during 2023 to take advantage of discounts to the trust’s NAV. If this estimate is correct, an additional $1.5 billion could be exited due to profit taking, given that $1.5 billion has already been exited. This means there will be further downward pressure on Bitcoin prices in the coming weeks.

Such outflows will put pressure on GBTC to lower its fees, the report said, noting that “GBTC’s 1.5% fee still appears too high compared to other spot Bitcoin ETFs and could lead to further outflows. “There is a risk of this,” he said.

“If GBTC loses its liquidity advantage, even more capital could flow out, perhaps between $5 billion and $10 billion (about 750 billion yen to 1.5 trillion yen),” the bank warned. ing. As of January 19th, GBTC has the highest fees among other ETFs. Some other ETFs have zero fees for the first six months or until a certain amount of assets under management is reached.

According to JPMorgan, other spot Bitcoin ETFs aside from GBTC have raised $3 billion in just four days. This is comparable to the inflows seen during past Bitcoin product launches.

Most of the $3 billion inflows came from existing Bitcoin investment products such as futures-based ETFs, the report added.

｜Translation: CoinDesk JAPAN
｜Edited by: Toshihiko Inoue
｜Image: Shutterstock
｜Original text: Bitcoin Exposed to Possible $1.5B in Future GBTC Sales, JPMorgan Says