Analysis provided by Bitcoin BullBear.
Compared to the past month, the past week has been relatively mild in term of news flow and price action. We find this interesting given that when the good news was pouring in, prices were cratering, but now that the news has subsided somewhat, the market has stabilized.
We are not sure if this phenomenon has any relevance in terms of the longer term forecast for bitcoin, however we do find it interesting. One thing it does is help explain the large bullish divergences in RSI and MACD, as it tells us that bearish momentum is waning and news is having less and less of an effect on the internals of the market.
With that in mind, the short term technicals are telling us that there needs to be a retest of the $365 low to see if it is indeed legitimate. Our suspicion is that the market will breakdown through that level on the way to a panicky low above $300 and below $339. Again, we view $300 as a long term gift and will use it as a buying opportunity.
Key levels to watch over the coming week are $365, $339, and ultimately $260 to the downside, while $398, $434, $497, $511, and $534 are key levels to the upside. Just a note on resistance, all of the levels mentioned would need to be taken out on volume before we would begin to consider the possibility that a bottom is in and a reversal to a new bull market is underway.
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