Bitcoin Market Continues to Poor, and U.S. Debt Ceiling Problem


Macroeconomics and financial markets

On the US NY stock market on the 19th of the previous weekend, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at $109 (0.3%) lower than the previous day.

Talks on the U.S. debt ceiling agreement, which had been hoped to make progress following positive comments by President Biden and Speaker of the House of Representatives McCarthy the other day, were reportedly suspended. In terms of the structure, it is necessary to obtain the approval of the US Congress in order to remove the debt ceiling.

In the unlikely event of a default on US Treasury bonds, credibility in the United States and the US dollar would be greatly damaged, and financial market turmoil such as panic selling of stocks and bonds would be inevitable.

A default that could have devastating global financial and economic consequences is extremely unlikely, at least not priced in by the stock market. The ruling and opposition parties, which are looking ahead to the presidential election, are of the opinion that they will eventually reach an agreement.

On the other hand, if interest payments on JGBs are prioritized and temporary measures such as postponing the default deadline are taken, or if negotiations run into difficulties until the deadline, it could lead to confusion such as the risk of a “downgrade of JGBs” as in 2011. is in a situation where there is no

With Treasury Secretary Yellen’s speech and the publication of the minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on the 24th, US time, it seems likely that the market will take a wait-and-see approach.

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Virtual currency market

In the crypto asset (virtual currency) market, Bitcoin fell 1.89% from the previous day to $26,665.

BTC/USD daily

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While the Tokyo stock market (Nikkei Stock Average) is attracting foreign buyers, the crypto asset (virtual currency) market, where funds are concentrated on meme coins and selling pressure on miners (miners) is increasing, has been dull recently. Due to the pressure from the US SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) and the uncertainty of the market, such as the US debt ceiling problem, there are few clues to buy, and it is in a poor state.

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As noted by Stockmoney Lizards (@StockmoneyL) et al., the technical analysis shows that the head and shoulders neckline has been interrupted. The $25,000 range will be conscious.

On the other hand, if you look at the rate of rise and fall of Bitcoin since the beginning of the year, it has risen significantly from the bottom. If the price dips, it will be a form of testing the neckline of the reverse triple, so if the price can rebound strongly at the appropriate support line (lower price support line), it will likely increase buyback momentum.

on-chain data

On-chain data provider Santiment noted that “Bitcoin’s (200-hour average) unique addresses have fallen below 800,000 for the first time since July 2021.”

A unique address is a wallet address used to send and receive bitcoins. It acts as a unique identifier and is interpreted as an indicator of activity and interest in the Bitcoin network.

A decrease in the number of unique addresses suggests a decrease in the number of participants and a decline in market interest, but Santiment, on the other hand, focuses on an increase in social dominance. He pointed out the increasing number of posts, discussions, and interest related to Bitcoin.

The significant increase in interest level is believed to be affected by the deterioration of sentiment (market sentiment) accompanying a bearish trend change, as well as the soaring BRC-20 token and speculative demand.

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The situation where fear psychology is triggered and FUD (bad rumors) spreads is seen as a bottoming signal similar to that immediately after the FTX bankruptcy in November last year.

However, in July 2009, when unique addresses dropped to the same level, 1 BTC = $29,000, bottoming out and then rising to a record high of $69,000. It was on par. This is in contrast to the current Fed (Federal Reserve) monetary tightening.

The second reason cited by Santiment is the decrease in the supply of BTC and ETH on virtual currency exchanges.

While the price of crypto assets is unstable, he pointed out that the supply in the exchange is at a historically low level. This suggests that investors are withdrawing assets from exchanges and shifting to self-custody (self-custody) on the premise of medium- to long-term holding, and market liquidity is declining.

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Click here for a list of market reports published in the past

The post Bitcoin Market Continues to Poor, and U.S. Debt Ceiling Problem appeared first on Our Bitcoin News.


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