According to K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde, Bitcoin (BTC) is similar to the surge of early 2019, with prices likely to peak around $45,000 in May. It is said that there is
The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has surged 80% this year, outpacing traditional risk assets such as the tech-savvy Nasdaq. The rally comes after BTC fell 76% over a 12-month period and bottomed out in November 2022.
Runde said the decline and subsequent recovery resembled the pattern seen during the 2018-19 bear market in terms of length and trajectory.
“Both cycle troughs lasted about 370 days, and peak-to-trough declines after 510 days amounted to 60%,” Runde said in a memo sent to clients last week. “In 2018, the rise amidst a bear market peaked with a drawdown of 34% on 29 June 2019, 556 days after the 2017 peak.”
“BTC may peak at $45,000 around May 20, although it is highly unlikely that history will repeat itself in a similar fashion, even if it continues in a similar fashion,” Lunde said. ing.
Bitcoin fell 84% in 2018, with the price bottoming out around $3,100 in December. The trend changed in the months that followed, with the price rising to $3,700 at the beginning of 2019 and then to $13,800 by the end of June.
Bitcoin’s year-to-date rally is described as a ‘hated bullish move’ among crypto observers on Twitterwidely mentionedHowever, this is in light of several prominent traders who have positioned the first quarter as a continuation of the sell-off.
A “hated” bull market usually begins when pessimism peaks. There is a frenzied upsurge as investors who have reduced risk in anticipation of long-term declines begin to feel undervalued and join the bullish bandwagon.
“The 2019 ‘Hated Rally’ ended with BTC blowing off top with a 40-60% drawdown from its 2017 high.” says Lunde. “The early 2023 rally has all the hallmarks of a hated rally.”
Bitcoin is trading at $29,850 at press time, down 1.5% on the day, according to CoinDesk data.
｜Translation: coindesk JAPAN
｜Editing: Toshihiko Inoue
｜Image: K33 Research
｜Original: Bitcoin Could Peak at $45K in May, Analyst Says
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