A professional commentary on the Bitcoin derivatives market at the beginning of 2023 | Contributed by virtual NISHI


*This report is written by virtual NISHI (crypto analyst of SBI VC Trade)@Nishi8maru) contributed to CoinPost.

Bitcoin Market Report (Feb. 9-Feb. 15)

Bitcoin rose nearly 150% in January 2011, mainly due to buybacks of short (selling) positions, but since February it has entered a range of around $23,000, and the rise has come to a halt as it enters an adjustment phase. It has become. The price at the time of writing is $22,900.


Looking at the funding rate (funding rate) and Basis, which is the difference between the spot price and the perpetual futures price, there is no sense of overheating and it is in a flat state.

Futures and Derivatives Market

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the open interest (OI) has been on a downward trend since the end of January.

In January, when the price rose, OI temporarily decreased (repurchase of short positions occurred). Movement is changing.

This is because the rise in January was mainly due to short covering (repurchase of selling positions), but now the proportion of long positions in the total positions is gradually increasing, and a sharp rise due to short covering is occurring. It is thought that it is getting harder.

On-chain environment

Since February, the price tends to fall as the transaction volume increases. Combined with the decline in CME OI, it is possible that some funds have flowed out of the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin’s dominance in the overall cryptocurrency market has risen by 4 percentage points since January.

External environment

The correlation with the US stock price index had been declining since the beginning of November last year when the FTX shock occurred, but since the beginning of this year, the correlation has risen again, centering on the semiconductor index (SOX) (SOX + 0.81, S&P 500 + 0.81). 63, Nasdaq 100 + 0.63).

However, the inverted yield curve (a state in which the US 2-year yield exceeds the 10-year yield) is expanding (blue frame in the image below), and it can be said that the headwinds for the entire crypto asset market are still strong.

options market

Despite a slight decline in prices in February, the PCR ratio, which is the ratio of puts and calls, has risen (yellow line in the red frame in the image below), indicating that trading in the physical delivery market is increasing. Weakness can be seen.

Miners (bitcoin miners) who have a lot of physical products may be a little bearish.

hash rate

The next difficulty is expected to be -2.21% easier, but the hash rate (mining speed) is still at a high level.

Recent Crypto Indicators

February 14 U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI): January 2011 Results

February 15 Cardano (ADA) SECP hard fork


The chain of bankruptcies triggered by the bankruptcy of the FTX Trading Group has come to a halt, and although prices were rising mainly due to short covering (buying back of short positions) in January, the position balance was adjusted after February, and overall The share of short positions in

In addition, there was a slight outflow of funds from the crypto-asset market, which has made the market somewhat bearish, and we believe it is entering an adjustment phase as a whole.

Contributor:Virtual NISHIVirtual NISHI

A crypto analyst at the crypto asset exchange SBI VC Trade, who advocates that “crypto assets are also SBI”. As a co-producer of BTC Status Alert and a planner and supervisor of DECOCCHART, she is involved in the distribution of investment-related information necessary for the Japanese industry.

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