Income from unemployment benefits, which makes up 1/7 of total income, dropped ~25% in the first week of August

COVID-19 Impact

Bi-weekly Covid Impact Data – First since $600 Supplemental UI Fall-Off Due to the Lack of a New Stimulus Bill and the End of PAC

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Fresh data on the real impact of Congresses inability to act prior to the expiration of the CARES Act Pandemic Additional Compensation (PAC). Steady has real-time income and employment data on their membership of over 2.1 million hourly and gig and low-medium income workers.

Some key data points

  • Income from unemployment benefits, which makes up 1/7 of total income, dropped ~25% in the first week of August and earned income was down ~13% (from additional job loss and reduction in utilization/increase in underemployment), producing a ~17% drop in total income (across all of Steady’s 2.1 million members).
  • Business categories that saw large drops in March, have leveled with mixed results ever since:
    • Entertainment:  Dropped sharply in March and April but stabilized somewhat in May and early June
    • Hospitality: Total income decreased by 21% over the last week, with hotels decreasing by 4% and catering decreasing by 27%
    • Skilled Labor: After a period of recovery since the low April, skilled labor has been volatile in recent weeks, with a drop of 44% last week and is down 52% from the end of February
  • Retail is recovering but has seen mixed impacts from COVID-19-related restrictions with steep declines in clothing and specialty stores but growth in home improvement and distribution retailers for a time.

Steady CEO Adam Roseman is quick to point out that given the lag in time between when unemployment benefits are claimed and when they are deposited, we have likely not seen the full impact from the end of PAC.

While this data only scratches the surface, for any gig worker or hourly employee economy story you’re working on, we can pull customized data for you, including useful stats with real $ figures, highlighting which states pay gig workers the most and which employers are providing the to average monthly income, etc.

Summary Of Most Recent Findings Regarding PAC

The impact of the expiration of the CARES Act’s Pandemic Additional Compensation (PAC) at the end of July was magnified by a significant drop in earned income. While income from unemployment benefits, which make up 1/7 of total income, dropped 25% in the first week of August, earned income was down 15%, giving a 16.5% drop in total income. Given the lag in time between when unemployment benefits are claimed and when they are deposited, we have likely not seen the full impact from the end of PAC.

COVID-19 Impact

PAC: Total Income Earned And Number Of Members Earning Confidential 3

**Note that stimulus checks are NOT included in these weekly totals**

Total number of Members earning income decreased with the end of the CARES act’s PAC

  • Including and excluding those receiving unemployment benefits there was a 10% loss in Members earning income last week
  • Excluding those receiving unemployment benefits since the end of April there has been a 24% drop
  • Total Members receiving unemployment benefits has increased by 83% in the same period

Total income earned by Steady Members decreased by 16% from last week

  • 14% of total income earned last week was from unemployment benefits
  • Excluding unemployment benefits, total income earned decreased by 15% last week
  • Total income from Unemployment has decreased by 25% from last week and is up by 28% since the end of April
  • Note that we have not been able to identify all sources of unemployment income, so that is likely understated as a percentage of the total income

COVID-19 Impact

Categories Large Drops In March Leveled With Mixed Results Ever Since

Entertainment

  • Largest companies: Dave & Busters + Regal
  • Total income and number of Members sharply declined in March and April but stabilized somewhat in May and early June. A gradual decline since late June reversed this week with a 119% increase in total income

Hospitality

  • Largest Companies (Catering): Aramark, Compass Group
  • Largest Companies (Hotels): Hilton, Lowes, Marriott
  • Total income decreased by 21% over the last week, with hotels decreasing by 4% and catering decreasing by 27%

Rideshare

  • Largest Companies: Uber, Lyft
  • Total Income decreased by 7% and number of Members earning dropped by 3%
  • Increased closures due to the rising number of cases could be a reason for a decrease in income this week

Skilled Labor

  • Largest Companies: Handy, Puls, Takl and various gyms and fitness studios
  • After a period of recovery since the low April, Skilled labor has been volatile in recent weeks, with a drop of 44% this week, and is down 52% from the end of February

COVID-19 Impact

Categories That Have Begun To Flatline In Recent Weeks

Delivery-Grocery

  • Decreased by 36% in total income last week, and is now down 14% since the start of the year, and is also now 56% lower than it was at its peak in April

Delivery-Other

  • Largest Companies: FedEx, Roadie
  • There was a 21% decrease in total income from last week and has remained relatively stable since the beginning of the year

Delivery-Restaurant

  • Largest Companies: DoorDash, Postmates, Grubhub
  • Total income decreased by almost 7% from last week and is now down 43% since its peak in April potentially due to some restaurants reopening to dine in

Retail-Online

  • Largest Companies: eBay, Poshmark, Mercari, Etsy
  • Total income decreased by 17% this week and is down 48% since its peak in May

PAC

PAC And Spending: Retail Has Begun To Recover…

Retail has seen mixed impacts from Coronavirus related restrictions with steep declines in clothing and specialty stores, but growth in home improvement and distribution retailers for a time. Last week saw gains in all categories

  • Clothing decreased in total income by 32% from last week and the number of Members decreased by 27%
  • General total income decreased by 23% and the number of Members decreased by 19% last week
  • Grocery lost 5% in total income last week, and faced an 8% loss in the number of Members for the second consecutive week
  • Home Improvement total income’s gain was temporary as there is now a 19% decrease and the number of Members declined by 24%
  • Pet Supply income decreased once again this week with a decreased of 20% effectively wiping out the gains it had made the other week
  • Specialty (including stores like Barnes & Noble, GameStop and Guitar Center) saw a decrease in total income by 1%, and is now down 11% since the end of April

PAC

States Have Shown Decreases in Income

Largest Drops in Income

  1. South Dakota
  2. Connecticut
  3. Montana
  4. Louisiana
  5. Iowa

Biggest Gains in Income

1. New Hampshire

PAC

Unemployment Benefits By State

Top 5 states by number of Members receiving unemployment benefits:

  1. Texas
  2. Georgia
  3. New York
  4. Florida
  5. Michigan

Note that Steady has not been able to identify unemployment benefits in some states at levels most likely anticipated based on their Member population. This could be because of backlogs in processing claims or transactions are more difficult to identify. Some of these states include, for example, California, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona

 

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