Bitcoin [BTC] traders seem to be in a deep slumber lately with one of the lowest periods of volatility. The implied volatility of Bitcoin. nonetheless, remained high with the SPX correlation and the Open Interest (OI) of the options market. However, the price itself has moved in small ranges.
The 60-Day volatility in the price of Bitcoin is 3.74%. The previous times with such low volatility was witnessed post halving in 2016, and the period before the bear and bull market of 2018 and 2019. Hence, while volatility values are neutral, but it’s close proximity to the 2016 trend suggests that we are in a bullish consolidation period.
Time-Based Repetition of 2016 Run
According to this the time-based prediction model designed by Digitalik.net (alias), the next ATH will be north of $300,000 and is still 474 days far ahead. The model is replicating the bull run of 2016 post halving.
The graph is showing how it would be if from today price change would repeat it’s pattern from previous cycle. It goes 1458 days ahead (full cycle).
“History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes” – Mark Twain
The above saying is specifically significant in the trading of assets as it helps in the establishment of market sentiments. The changes are usually front-running of an expected event or an unexpected reaction altogether. Therefore, the above model has a low probability of happening. but it gives a faint idea into the extending periods of consolidation before bull runs.
Another prominent analyst, Willy Woo, recently suggested that we could see front running of bull markets. He is yet to publish the basis and details of the trend indicator in Bitcoin price. Nevertheless, mentions that during the start of the year itself, the price was primed for a parabolic run, but COVID-19 came about as a black swan event.
According to this cycle repeat model, the next bull run could begin in the next month or so. However, he also stated,
The longer this bull market takes to wind up, the higher the peak price (Top Cap model). A long sideways accumulation band is ultimately a good thing.
Which model do you agree with 30-Day or 474 Days? Please share your views with us.