Bitcoin [BTC] Futures Open Interest Swells As Halving Nears, Signals To $7,000?


Bitcoin Futures Open Interest OKEx BitMex

Bitcoin futures open interest is on a spike as confidence in the market regains its feet since the Black Thursday crash on Mar. 12 that saw the price of the top crypto plummet to $3,800.  A month on, the market shows signals of a bull run heading to the halving despite the price collapsing below the psychological support level at $7,000.

Bitcoin Futures open interest on a spike

According to data collected from, Skew Markets, the past month has seen steady growth in the number of outstanding market positions after a sudden collapse on Mar. 12. OKEx exchange leads the field in open interest of BTC contracts registering $659 million in value of the BTC contracts. This represents a huge spike of 42.9% in the past months in open interest volume.

BitMEX is a close second with a total of $615 million in outstanding BTC futures contracts – a minor leap from the $607 million registered on March 13th. Huobi, Binance and CME close out the top five with a total of $334 million, $202 million and $196 million respectively.

The total open interest of BTC contracts is currently at $2.3 billion, a sharp monthly rise from $1.8 billion, but still falls short of pre-crash levels at almost $6 billion. As the OI gradually swells, a return to pre-crash levels may give a hint of investors coming back to the field as trading resumes normally – a very bullish signal for Bitcoin in the run-up to its halving.

Bitcoin set to breach $7,000 as halving nears

After failing to breach resistance at $7,500 levels, BTC/USD sellers are in control of the market as Bitcoin retraced back to $6811, as at the time of writing. The three-day capitulation came amidst the Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Bitcoin SV (BSV) halvings but the market is stabilizing giving off a positive vibe in the coming future.

Image: TradingView

A cross above the SMA 50 will effectively signal the start of a bull run in the next month as Bitcoin halving is only a month away. According to the stock-to-flow model, Bitcoin is greatly underpriced and the third halving is the catalyst to pushing the coin toward new all-time highs.

However, there remains doubt on the S2F model and its ability to predict Bitcoin’s price –which has a predetermined supply rate cut. Eric Wall, a crypto analyst argues,

“I think BTC has the potential to reach a market cap similar to gold (for starters), which would put it at >$300k. I think the path for it to get there largely depends on how rapidly bitcoin propagates as a phenomenon throughout society. Not according to some predetermined schedule.”