Are U.S. Presidential Elections a Leading Indicator For Bitcoin[BTC] Bull Runs?


Two months after Obama was elected as U.S. President in 2008, Bitcoin (BTC) was born and it seems since then, major bull runs in BTC have been precipitated by a presidential election in the leading economy in the world. 

“Story Behind U.S. Presidential Elections & Bitcoin Bull Runs”

The conversations around bitcoin reward halving have gained pace in the past few days, with the number of searches growing to all-time highs on global Google Trends charts. However, one analyst argues that Bitcoin’s price is set to gravitate more in the events set to happen in the latter months of 2020 pertaining to the U.S. Presidential election rather than the halving despite the impact.

Data provided on the argument holds for the past two general elections – during Obama’s 2012 win and Trump’s 2016 win – both of which “started” a massive Bitcoin bull market in the successive year. Ryan Watkins, a research analyst at Messari Crypto, tweeted on Monday, April 27,

“Not a lot of people know this, but US presidential elections are a leading indicator of #Bitcoin bull runs.”

Looking at a Bitcoin’s price chart across the last decade or so, price starts a magnificent run following the election period setting new all-time highs the next year.

  • The Obama Bitcoin Bull Run

Obama’s election in November 2008, saw the famous Satoshi-built “freedom coin” launch –changing the financial space forever.

The Obama Run: Bitcoin price soared 759% in a year following Obama’s re-election in 2012 (Data Limited from Mar 2013)

Once Obama was re-elected in 2012, the price of Bitcoin traded in the triple digits, oscillating between the $100 mark and $200 resistance. Fast forward a year on, and the bulls were raging in the market.

Towards the end of the inauguration year, in November 2013, the price of BTC boosted over 520% during the month of November to set a then all-time high at $1,152 USD on December 6th, 2013.

  • The Trump Bitcoin Bull Run

In a similar fashion the election of Donald Trump Jr. in 2016 was associated with a magnanimous rise in the price of BTC. According to charts, the price of BTC stood at $710 in November 2016. The following year, Bitcoin experienced its first-ever contentious hard fork, setting the price to new all-time highs of $19,800 in December that year, a week later than 2013’s run – on December 16th 2017. This represented a 20X increase in four years.

The Trump Run: Bitcoin boosts over 24X a year after Trump’s election in 2016


(Images from Coinmarketcap)

Do you think the U.S Presidential election in 2020 will cause a similar pump of Bitcoin’s price in 2021? Share your views with us in the comments below.