Bitcoin Futures Market Skeptic of CME Gap at $7700, but Price holds Key Support


Bitcoin [BTC] price bullish view comes under suspicion again as price dips below $8000. The volatility, macro view, trade orders on derivatives market could cause massive up and down-swings.

Price broke above the Bollinger Bands yesterday are just inside the upper limits. The 200-EMA at $8150 continues to act as resistance, while the descending channel is providing for bullish support.

BTC/USD 1-Day Chart on Bitstamp (TradingView)

Positions View on Top Exchanges

The funding and premium rate suggests that trader are expecting a bounce above $8000 again. The upper limit of the descending channel is around $7930.

btcusd bitmex funding rate
BTC/USD BitMEX Funding Rate 

On Huobi the percentage of long vs. short ratio has seen a fall since yesterday along with Open Interest (OI). Nevertheless, the overall inclination is still bullish at the moment.

huobi long short ratio
Huobi Trader Positions (Long Vs. Short)

The OI on OKex is down as well since. Moreover, the funding rate on Okex is currently on the bullish side. The top 100 traders on Okex are also inclined towards long (53% vs. 45%).

CME Gap looms around $7700

On the CME front, traders have been weary of the ‘gap’ in the charts around the $7600.

Usually, gaps occur during the weekends when the trading on CME is halted. This particular gap was recorded between daily opening and closing 7th and 6th January respectively.

cme gap
Bitcoin Futures Daily Price Chart on CME (TradingView)

Since historically, price has had a strong tendency of filling the gaps. The traders might be motivated to incline towards shorts.

However, derivatives traders and crypto analyst, Josh Rager warns of blindly following the rhetoric, he tweeted,

For you CME gappers, the price doesn’t technically “have to” fill the gap for Bitcoin but historically it has And it’s likely price makes its way back down to $7600-$7700s but doesn’t have to be immediate Just keep that in mind

Marco Sentiments due to the US-Iran Tension

Moreover, the dip in gold followed by Trumps’ comment on easing the tension further puts selling pressure on Bitcoin. Gold has dipped about 3.5% from it’s highs above $1600 yesterday. If the correlation with gold and global macro events is true, a Bitcoin dip will be justified at the moment.

Schematic View of Price Changes during the US-Iran Conflict (Source: Messari)

The price of Bitcoin [BTC] at 3: 00 hours UTC on 9th January 2019 is $7974. It is trading 5.7% lower from it’s high yesterday. BTC rose by over 23% since the first air-strike by the US.

Do you think Bitcoin will continue its’ bullish streak or correction will ensue for a while? Please share your views with us. 

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