Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Surge Was a Bear Trap; Will $10,000 Hold?

  • Bitcoin surge was a bear trap; the incoming downtrend is becoming difficult to avert.
  • Bitcoin short-term trend is within a bullish range as long the price stays above the 50-day MA.

Bitcoin is fighting tooth and nail to hold on to gains seen over the last few days. The surge brightened the entire market as other cryptocurrencies recovered, although slightly. Unfortunately, Bitcoin failed to clear the resistance at $10,800 leaving $11,000 psychological level untested.

BTC/USD daily chart

BTC price chart
BTC price chart by Tradingview

The daily chart shows Bitcoin having broken above a long-term falling triangle around $10,430. With the diminishing buying pressure, sellers are beginning to gain traction. The retraction is likely because the breakout was a falls breakout. Besides, the momentum from last week’s low around $9,330 went an opposed at $10,000 (broken support). Therefore, investors should continue with caution as Bitcoin could revert into the bear trend.

Offering support at the moment is the 50-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $10,430. A break below this moving average could thrust Bitcoin against various key support levels including $10,200, $10,000, $9,800, $9,600 and $9,300.

If we take other indicators into account like the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), then Bitcoin short-term trend is within a bullish range. The MACD is trending higher, in turn, signaling the control the buyers have on the price at the time of writing.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart

BTC/USD price chart
BTC/USD price chart by Tradingview

The 4-hour chart shows Bitcoin volatility at its highest since September 1. The retreat from the recent high could find support around $10,400. However, a break under the Bollinger Band 4-hour Middle curve will slam Bitcoin further down. The 50 SMA 4-hour will prevent declines under at $9,898.

Bitcoin Key Technical Levels

Spot rate: 10,417

Relative change: -207

Daily percentage change: -2.11%

High: $10,650.67

Low: $10,381.57

Trend: Bearish

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