Are Bitcoin Futures predicting the future for Bitcoin’s spot prices?


Bitcoin’s price action is similar to a lot of other bubbles in history. In fact, BTC’s chart and patterns have striking similarities to the DotCom bubble, Qualcomm Charts etc., which could be due to the fractal nature that is witnessed everywhere in nature and in human behavior. However, an interesting correlation between Bitcoin’s spot price and Bitcoin Futures was spotted by the Founder and CEO of NodeSource, Joe McCann.

McCann’s analysis suggested that Bitcoin Futures prices ‘forecasted’ a story for Bitcoin spot prices and later, followed it promptly. McCann tweeted,

According to Joe McCann, there was a contango spike [Contango, sometimes called forwardation, is a situation where the futures price of a commodity is higher than the anticipated spot price at maturity of the futures contract], at 15:11 UTC between Bitcoin Futures [XBTU19] and the spot price of Bitcoin.

Source: Twitter

The price of Bitcoin Futures [green line] in the above image spiked at 15:11 UTC, whereas the spot price of Bitcoin [black line] at the same time was yet to spike.

Source: Twitter

The spot prices for Bitcoin only reached the peak 2 minutes after the futures spiked, the image for which is attached below.

Source: Twitter

Further, the spot price of Bitcoin as seen on GBTC [Grayscale Bitcoin Trust] was lagging in comparison to the XBTU19 Futures. As of 19:13 UTC, the price of Bitcoin Futures had hit a bottom, which was followed by a spike at 19:26. GBTC hit the bottom at 19:15 UTC, suggesting that there was a lag of 2 minutes, whereas the spike was seen at 19:52 i.e., a lag of 26 minutes.

A Twitter user, @crypto_boy1, commented,

“Great data as always Would be interesting to get historical data on this”

Another Twitter user, @TheCryptoDog, commented,

“Joe when you start monetizing don’t forget about the little guys who supported you on the way up.”

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