Charting the course that Bitcoin will take has been an arduous task. With cryptocurrency’s first decade over, the next few years will determine the path Bitcoin will take for the coming century, given the importance of imminent events, claims the co-owner of Bitcoin.org, Cobra.
The pseudonym placed prime importance on the next “3 or 4 years,” that will spell the fate of the king coin and the larger coin market. Despite the surrounding issues of institutional interest, the waves of adoption and governments taking aim at the decentralized currency market, Cobra highlighted two key drivers.
His tweet read,
“The next 3 or 4 years will determine whether Bitcoin will last and thrive for the next 100 years. The halving as well as hitting the limits of the current block sizes bringing scaling back to the forefront with more controversial hard/soft fork proposals. Will be turbulent times.”
From an internal protocol perspective, the Bitcoin.org co-owner stated that halving and block size limit will be key issues on the table.
Bitcoin is set to undergo its third halving in May 2020, which will bring down the mining rewards to 6.25 BTC per block mined. Based on historical analysis, the precursor to the imminent mining is a rise in price, three months to one year prior to the scheduled halving.
Further, CoinMetrics, in their recent study concluded that in addition to the precursor pump, Bitcoin will reach its “local peak” 18 months after the halving, evidencing the previous two halving cycles. Based on the CoinMetrics chart, this “peak” would manifest in late-2021, well within the period Cobra specified.
The debate around Bitcoin’s block size has been raging for several years now, leading to fault lines within the community. Cobra has often been at loggerheads with several proponents on the issue of BTC’s block size. Bitcoin Cash [BCH] and Bitcoin Satoshi’s Vision [BSV] are two notable examples of an increase in the BTC block size leading to hardforks.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Cobra voiced displeasure with “soft forks,” which, in the co-owner’s opinion, is “a hard fork in all but name.”
Earlier in the year, when Luke Dashjr proposed an idea to reduce block size and Bitrefill CCO John Carvalho chimed in with support, Cobra immediately hit back, calling such forks “contentious.”
The effect, in his opinion, would be,
“This will split off from the established consensus, cause massive drama, and damage trust in Bitcoin.”
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