With a year left to the hotly anticipated Bitcoin [BTC] halving scheduled for May 2020, the bulls are right on track. Based on historical price movements, the price of the top cryptocurrency surges 3 months to a year prior to the halving; the current market conditions are a testament to this effect.
Bitcoin mining rewards are set to drop by 50 percent from 12.5 BTC per block at press time to 6.25 BTC per block on the aforementioned date, hence resulting in a scarcity of the coin, leading to a price rise. Previous halvings, the first in 2012 and the second in 2016 have seen a prior price push, with the third halving expected to usher in the same.
According to a BTC price chart, laid out from the mining reward reduction perspective via Reddit by user lemonmule, the current market is in a “Reaccumulation,” phase, which will continue to flow till May 2020. The period following the halving will give rise to the “Bull market,” where Bitcoin will surge from around $15,000 to well over $140,000.
Despite the forward-looking prediction being quite streamlined in the bullish sense, the previous predictions do paint a telling tale of a uniform change in the BTC price leading up the periodic event. The four-part cycle consists of a bear market following the bull market, then resulting in an “Accumulation” period, then a short stint of “Expansion,” after which a “Reaccumulation” period, as can be seen in the current market.
The past two halvings have seen this cycle replicate. In November 2012, when the 210,001 block was produced the rewards dipped from 50 BTC per block to 25 BTC. Almost a year and a half prior to the same, the price of Bitcoin topped at around $30, then endured the following three periods, at the time of the halving, the coin was priced at just below its peak.
Similar patterns were seen with the 2016 halving. In December 2013, the price of the king coin broke through the $1,000 ceiling for the first time, the peak of the pre-second halving bull market. Following this peak, the coin began descending till early 2015 and then shot back up towards the start of 2015, catalyzed by the Expansion period.
After a stagnant 2015, the following two years saw bullish activity, with the famous $19,500 ascendance in December 2017 the peak of the pre-third halving cycle, The bear market, or more popularly known as the “crypto-winter,” took centre-stage in 2018, shaving the price to just above $3,000 last December, which triggered the start of the “Accumulation” period. The rise in April and May marked the start of the steep “Expansion” period followed by the Reaccumulation phase, which, according to the chart will continue till the halving.
The BTC price is set to shoot up in late-2019 to close to December 2017 levels, before a massive price rise that will continue till 2020. The price at the close of next year will be around $24,000, indicated the chart with the $100,000 barrier to be broken by the close of 2020.
Given the recurring patterns of price upheavals prior to and post the halving, and the mirrored pre-conditions that are prevalent in the market today, the halving model’s prediction of a six-digit Bitcoin price in the next year and a half could have some truth to it.
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