History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes: Will Bitcoin retrace its 2015 bear market trend?

Bitcoin has been pumping continuously since its December 2018 lows, leading many people to believe that the much-awaited bull run has begun. Lending more credibility to this was the occurrence of the Golden Cross on April 23, 2019.

So, has the bull run officially begun? Or is it just a fakeout?

Are The Bulls Back In Town?

There must be underlying hints to this rally, adding more weight to the notion that the bull run has begun. Below are some obvious hints that indicate the beginning of a bull run.

Golden Cross

A Golden Cross is when the 50-day SMA moves over the 200-day MA. Historically, this suggests the possibility of an increase in price. Bitcoin exhibited this Golden Cross in October 2015, following which the price rallied from approximately $200 to $20,000. On April 23, 2019, the price of Bitcoin surged, leading to the crossover of the above-mentioned Simple Moving Averages.

This turned a lot of heads, with leading proponents believing that the rally had finally commenced. Moreover, Bitcoin’s price reached a low on December 15, 2018, lending more weight to the theory.

Weekly Candles

Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows that there have never been 7-weekly bullish candles in a row, which indicates that the bullish momentum on a weekly time-frame has flipped. This pattern of Bitcoin is usually seen during bull runs. Moreover, the weekly MACD and RSI charts are showing bullish indications as well.

More Bullish Momentum

The Relative Strength Index on a daily time frame has reached the 85 to 90 level; the path that RSI is traversing at press time can only be seen during the bull market. The last time RSI hit these levels was in December 2017, the peak of Bitcoin’s bull run. This further adds credibility to the theory that Bitcoin has bottomed and that it has started its rally.

Have The Bears Left Yet?

There are always two sides to a story. There might be a chance that the extremely long wait for a bull run caused some facts to be overlooked.

Golden Cross? More like Rolled Gold

Bitcoin underwent a Golden Crossover in July 2015, which led everybody to believe that the bull rally had started. It was nothing more than a fakeout. Three months later, Bitcoin did an actual crossover, which led to the commencement of a bull rally. If Mark Twain was right, then Bitcoin will not repeat it’s history, but will “rhyme” the movement of the 2015 bear market.

A Closer look at RSI

Source: TradingView

The RSI hit a relatively higher point, but what has it done since that point? It has been collapsing slowly while the price is rising.
If the RSI continues to fall, it is a classic sign of divergence, which is a bearish sign for Bitcoin over a daily time frame.

Fractal History of Bitcoin

In “Bitcoin’s 48 hours are done: BTC’s most important correction move has begun, but to what end?,” there is a mention of how Bitcoin isn’t different from the Internet Bubble or other stocks in the market [in terms of the pattern of the cycle]. According to the above-mentioned article, Bitcoin is yet to bottom, and the bottom, in reference to the article, is somewhere in the $2,000 region, and that this is nothing but a fakeout.

Conclusion

Only time will tell if BTC will go on a bullish rampage or slide into bearish hibernation. Bitcoin is up for a correction soon; the correction might not be a huge one, but there is bound to be a correction before the bull run begins.

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