Bitcoin’s sudden spike on April 02, 2019 has stirred up a lot of belief that the bull run for Bitcoin has already begun, however, some disagree and believe that it is yet to bottom. Fundstrat’s Thomas Lee tweeted his opinion which stated that Bitcoin has “likely” hit the bottom and it is on a bull run.
The Bitcoin Misery Index reached 89 on 4/2. Highest reading since June 2016. Means good and bad.
Good–> Since 2011, BMI >67 only seen during $BTC bull markets. More evidence bull starting.
— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) April 11, 2019
In his tweet, Lee spoke about Bitcoin’s Misery Index, which measures the momentum of Bitcoin based on the trading activity and the price. BMI is the ratio of winning trades to total trades, and also takes into account the volatility into a daily score, which is measured on a scale of 0 to 100.
According to Lee, Bitcoin is “miserable” if the BMI is below 27, which means that Bitcoin has reached its lows and it would be a good buy signal. If the BMI is above 67, it is bad, as Bitcoin would be on a bull run and is closer to peaks, which would be a good sell signal.
Lee also mentioned that the BMI was at 89, which is an all-time high for Bitcoin since 2011 and it meant that Bitcoin had bottomed and the bull run had already begun.
With the above explanation, Lee said that Bitcoin’s bull run might have begun. He summed up his tweet saying:
“The main takeway is that BMI reaching 67 is further evidence the bear market for Bitcoin likely ended at $3,000”
Lee is well-known for his predictions on Bitcoin as he recently tweeted another bullish proof for Bitcoin. He said that Bitcoin had moved above the 200-day moving average, which was a bullish indicator for Bitcoin. Lee added that BTC’s ascent above the 200-day moving average had a higher win ratio in comparison to moving away from the 200-day moving average.
Reminder that BTC generally generates all of its performance within 10D of any year.
–ex the top 10 days, BTC is down 25% annually since 2013”
@_Dumb_Genius, a Twitter user, commented:
“Interesting that BMI recently bottomed in April 18 and then rose but this did not signal actual cycle bottom, just a dead cat bounce followed by a false floor (6K), then capitulation in Nov/Dec 18 (which was still higher BMI than April 18). Is BMI capturing the right things?”
“This is an index designed to measure sentiment, so it’s not really going to line up with price peaks and troughs”
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