The April 1 Bitcoin [BTC] ascendance over $5,000 initiated an optimistic wave in the market, with several influencers even suggesting a bull-run on the horizon. Tyler Jenks, the chief investment officer and President of Lucid Investments, is not as optimistic as his contemporaries and predicted a fall before the rise.
In an interview with BlockTV, Jenks suggested that the upswing of the early April bulls had petered out. With a pushback after Bitcoin reached over $5,200, with low volume-volatility and technical indicators being neutral, the market will look to decline.
Jenks highlighted the $6,000 mark, which Bitcoin slipped below in November 2018, to be the “single most important move in the bear market.” Since then, the price went down all the way to $3,100 and recent rally has buoyed the market but failed to move above the prominent $6,000 level, which is concerning.
Given this price struggle, Jenks stated:
“I think we’re going to see $1,500 before we see $6,500.”
He added that the market is “beginning to fade again,” as the price continues to languish under $6,000. Furthermore, based on current sentiments, Jenks is of the opinion that the price “cannot get above $6,000” adding that “the longer we stay down here, it will get volatile.”
Despite many analysts suggesting that 2019 will be the season of the altcoins, Jenks played pessimist to the prospects of the 48 percent. The elasticity of the altcoin price, relative to Bitcoin, is quite high, in his opinion.
“On the upside, they [altcoins] tend to do better than Bitcoin, and on the downside, they tend to do worse. But they’re very very closely co-related.”
Referring to Bitcoin as the “mothership” and the remaining coins as the “satellites,” that will crash if they drift away from the BTC core, he expected a decline in the alts. In light of this tie, Ethereum [ETH] and Litecoin [LTC] stand out, in his opinion, as they did “2-3x” better than BTC on the way up and worse, by the same magnitude, on the way down, especially when Bitcoin tumbled below the “6,000 mark.”
Altcoins, which have been on the rise over the past few years, creating their niche markets and user-bases, did not excite the Lucid Investments president. At its peak, in January 2018, when Bitcoin was well over $15,000, the altcoins held over 65 percent of the market. Since then, Bitcoin’s dominance has been on the rise, holding over 52 percent of the market at press time.
However, Jenks suggested that altcoins will decline in the future:
“I am a firm believer that 95 percent plus of all the altcoins are going to go to zero.”
Although, he failed to mention which altcoins will be in the minority and not see their value dwindle to zero. Jenks added that the “single biggest negative” for Bitcoin that will sustain its bear market was the “confusion of the public” as to which altcoins to park their funds in.
Leaving aside the investors who understand the crypto-market, the larger public will stay out of fiat but will often move their funds around several coins, leading to Bitcoin remaining in a state of decline, suggested Jenks.
Bitcoin will only near a “bottom” once this altcoin dilemma is cleared out, which, in Jenks’ opinion, can happen either through regulation or another downtrend. These two scenarios will make it “fiscally impossible for those Bitcoin projects to continue and will have to shut down.”
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