Fundstrat’s Thomas Lee spoke about Bitcoin and the bullish indicators it has triggered, during a discussion with Fox Business on April 12. He compared it to the S&P 500, while also attempting to pinpoint Bitcoin’s price for 2019.
Thomas Lee is known for his predictions, with the most famous prediction being that Bitcoin would reach $25,000 during its rallies. However, his prediction didn’t yield results as Bitcoin soon collapsed from its peak. Lee spoke about Bitcoin’s Misery Index and how it created a new all-time high for Bitcoin.
According to Lee, Bitcoin’s Misery Index measures the momentum of Bitcoin based on trading activity and price, and is the percentage of the ratio of winning trades to total trades. It also takes volatility into account to measure a daily score, which is measured on a scale of 0 to 100.
In one of his recent tweets, Lee confirmed that BMI reaching 89 meant that Bitcoin had reached its bottom and that the bull rally had already begun. To be specific, Lee said that Bitcoin’s bear market ended when it reached the $3000 range.
Speaking to Fox Business, Lee added,
“I think that if Bitcoin matches what the S&P 500s have done this year, cause the S&P’s move this year is 2.5 standard deviation, that implies that Bitcoin would be $14,000 this year.”
Lee had previously tweeted about the S&P 500 reaching 2.5 standard deviations on March 17.
— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) March 17, 2019
Lee explained that the standard deviation of the S&P 500, Russel small-cap is greater than 2, but that of Bitcoin is -0.26. If Bitcoin pumps by approximately 185%, it will reach its ideal standard deviation, putting its price anywhere between $10,000 and $20,000.
A Twitter user, @gperezgiusti, commented,
“Honest inquiry: does this forecast change if the 3/10 yield curve inverts again and remains that way for more than a couple of weeks?”
Another Twitter user, @JoGiovanni_, commented,
“Wonder what to extrapolate for the $Nasdaq $QQQ ”
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