Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel joins the ‘Squawk Box’ team to discuss the record bull run.
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Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel On How Long The Bull Market Can Run
I think you know when we go all the way back to 2009 I thought that was one of the easiest calls I made. We were the most undervalued that we’ve been and you know we’ve had a we have had nine great years. I think one thing that’s important for listeners to note is the previous longest bull market ended in March of 2000 with the price earnings ratio at 30 for the S&P. We’re looking at 18 right now for you looking at this year’s earnings so we are much less so to speak overvalued. And besides that we were in a much higher interest rate environment than we are today. So I feel you know people say oh my god does it look like the last bull market and we know what happened after that. And I said no it doesn’t feel at all like that last bull market it feels like pretty reasonable final valuation that I take next year’s S&P earnings and multiply it by 30 is that what your forecast is for oh no no no no that was I mean I think that’s that’s too high. But 18 I mean even 18 to 20 in a low interest rate environment stable economy I don’t think is is too large. So I think I certainly think we could go higher. We do have a lot of challenges when we’ve been talking. Trade is still not settled. The Fed looks still pretty aggressive out there we have. Midterm elections. Odds makers are saying that you know that the Democrats are going to take the house. So my god what. You know basically going to happen there.
So you know I mean I’m I still think the next few months are going to be a challenge. But. If we can get China NAFTA settled I see a 10 percent pop in the market because I think that’s the you know the 800 pound gorilla that’s kind of keeping the lid on prices now.
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